Having taught English as a Second Language to many refugees from Iran after the “revolution” (aka mullah takeover) I can attest to their wonderful intelligence & character. I became friends with many of them. I agree. It’s taken way too long to deal with the problem. Thanks for your insights.
I thought at the time, and still do today that toppling, Saddam was the correct thing to do for too many reasons to list in a comment; however, the occupation was a disaster and I thought that after 6 weeks. As for Iran, it is ripe for a new regime. The truckers are on strike and there is a new game of taunting the mullahs by knocking off their turbans. If caught these kids will face severe punishment even death. Yet they still do it. Maybe, I can only hope and pray, the US has a plan to push the current regime hard enough for the people to topple it. The IRGC will not go quietly into the night and so either the regular army or the people will need the fire power to end the theocracy and free the people.
I would propose that anyone inclined to intervene in societies vastly different from our own read David Kilcullen's book, "The Accidental Guerilla". An invasion of Iran by our troops would effectively introduce a foreign body into a polity we do not understand; if we want things to change, we have to identify and support the groups who know the situation on the ground, have legitimacy with the people, and can establish a government the people will respect.
We failed in Afghanistan, and in Iraq for at least in the first several years, largely because we unnecessarily created a natural focal point for opposition rather than break the offending regime (to clear the field of the previous competitor for leadership) then support the traditional leaders of the society to create a governance structure consistent with their values and preferences--without attempting to direct a foreign and undesirable structure on the people.
In my opinion US or any Western troops in Iran are out of question. But how about our CIA? Heavy infiltration and subversion in Iran, with the help of a rather large Persian diaspora. Explosions going off in all the right places and money and other support going to the dissidents. We could learn a thing or two from the Mullahs themselves. Wouldn't that be something?
No. Not the diaspora--we screwed that up in both Afghanistan and Iraq. The diaspora, almost by definition, have little or no influence in the country are will be seen as only slightly less foreign than our troops. To make this work, we have to identify the people IN THE COUNTRY that know the ground and people, have legitimacy in their communities, and can leverage the existing discontent while assuring the locals are running the show (with a minor, and fairly quiet, assisting role for the U.S./West).
I said like 10 yrs ago: we’re on a collision course with Iran and need to ACT. The trick is to crush leadership while avoiding a humanitarian crisis. Delay compounds our cost.
Enjoyed your article about Michael Ledeen! An important takeaway from your writing is the following: “I thought we were supposed to be a superpower and they a third world nation.”
Well, yeah – no kidding! So the Ayatollahs started acting up in 1979 and have not let up, making the world an insecure place, and now they want to add a Nuclear Bomb to their arsenal. Really?!
Yep! But now let's look at other issues that go into the same slop bucket. That would be North Korea. The West, heavily represented by the US, fought a very bloody war in Korea. The US Military was fighting KPA soldiers in rough terrain and climate. But a dirty little detail is that they were mostly fighting PVA’s (Chinese, who came from the North across the Yalu River.
This was simply accepted by the US Command and the Allies, instead of sending their leader, Mao, a stern warning. To be followed by heavy packages sent to Beijing, compliments of the Air Force. But…no, nothing the like.
So now we have a 3rd generation lunatic North Korean leader, with Nuclear capabilities, and just as crazy as the aspiring Ayatollahs.
And on top of this, we have China and Xi Jinping, just as nuts as Mao, working on undermining the whole world.
The USSR, thank G-d, dissolved on its own. Unfortunately, we still have to deal with one of its KGB colonels.
So, yes we are supposed to be the superpower, but it seems we are utterly & totally worthless in dealing with third world nations. In comparison, we did a lot better with the “Reich”, which was not a 3rd world country.
Militarily, you can invade Iran from Russia (as Stalin did during WW2) - but all that we could do now is drop ordnance on them from the air - our infantry has nowhere to jump off from (Iraq?) - and going in from the west runs almost immediately into mountains. Not good terrain for tanks, as we discovered in Italy during WW2. This somewhat limits Trump's options.
Our country is fighting against 3 powers who have support from many other countries. China’s, Iran’s, and Russia’s “leaders” are the cause of much of the world’s problems, deadly and dangerous problems. Netanyahu has refused to attack the militant terrorists who are the armies supported by Iran WITHOUT giving warnings to the populace of Gaza. He drops pamphlets to warn when Israel will attack. Trump is faced with the same problem but with 3 larger populations in 3 different countries. Many of us recognize this problem: In trying to defeat our enemies, how can we give warnings to the populace of 3 different and dangerous regimes? I trust in Trump and his desire to have peace in our world. He has proven to be a superior negotiator among world powers. He has accomplished great strides in this battle for peace. And he has done it with “deadly enemies on his back.” We must keep our support for Trump in place.
In my view, Iran is a great culture of great people. It would be really great if the harsh rhetoric and threats were left behind and we all look forward to what we can do together.
As for the massive armaments in the region; glad these were destroyed, but deeply saddened that people were placed between the stores and the incoming.
Regarding the reshaping, I have my predictions and maps. In any regard, Syria, a very culturally diverse and geographically segmented, will likely serve as a set of buffer zones. Let us hope this can be peaceful and productive.
Having taught English as a Second Language to many refugees from Iran after the “revolution” (aka mullah takeover) I can attest to their wonderful intelligence & character. I became friends with many of them. I agree. It’s taken way too long to deal with the problem. Thanks for your insights.
I thought at the time, and still do today that toppling, Saddam was the correct thing to do for too many reasons to list in a comment; however, the occupation was a disaster and I thought that after 6 weeks. As for Iran, it is ripe for a new regime. The truckers are on strike and there is a new game of taunting the mullahs by knocking off their turbans. If caught these kids will face severe punishment even death. Yet they still do it. Maybe, I can only hope and pray, the US has a plan to push the current regime hard enough for the people to topple it. The IRGC will not go quietly into the night and so either the regular army or the people will need the fire power to end the theocracy and free the people.
The Iranian people, in general, have never fully supported the Mullahs or the IRGC—they didn’t like the Shah much, either.
I would propose that anyone inclined to intervene in societies vastly different from our own read David Kilcullen's book, "The Accidental Guerilla". An invasion of Iran by our troops would effectively introduce a foreign body into a polity we do not understand; if we want things to change, we have to identify and support the groups who know the situation on the ground, have legitimacy with the people, and can establish a government the people will respect.
We failed in Afghanistan, and in Iraq for at least in the first several years, largely because we unnecessarily created a natural focal point for opposition rather than break the offending regime (to clear the field of the previous competitor for leadership) then support the traditional leaders of the society to create a governance structure consistent with their values and preferences--without attempting to direct a foreign and undesirable structure on the people.
In my opinion US or any Western troops in Iran are out of question. But how about our CIA? Heavy infiltration and subversion in Iran, with the help of a rather large Persian diaspora. Explosions going off in all the right places and money and other support going to the dissidents. We could learn a thing or two from the Mullahs themselves. Wouldn't that be something?
No. Not the diaspora--we screwed that up in both Afghanistan and Iraq. The diaspora, almost by definition, have little or no influence in the country are will be seen as only slightly less foreign than our troops. To make this work, we have to identify the people IN THE COUNTRY that know the ground and people, have legitimacy in their communities, and can leverage the existing discontent while assuring the locals are running the show (with a minor, and fairly quiet, assisting role for the U.S./West).
I said like 10 yrs ago: we’re on a collision course with Iran and need to ACT. The trick is to crush leadership while avoiding a humanitarian crisis. Delay compounds our cost.
You guys were quite a pair, Roger! He loved you.
Hi Roger,
Enjoyed your article about Michael Ledeen! An important takeaway from your writing is the following: “I thought we were supposed to be a superpower and they a third world nation.”
Well, yeah – no kidding! So the Ayatollahs started acting up in 1979 and have not let up, making the world an insecure place, and now they want to add a Nuclear Bomb to their arsenal. Really?!
Yep! But now let's look at other issues that go into the same slop bucket. That would be North Korea. The West, heavily represented by the US, fought a very bloody war in Korea. The US Military was fighting KPA soldiers in rough terrain and climate. But a dirty little detail is that they were mostly fighting PVA’s (Chinese, who came from the North across the Yalu River.
This was simply accepted by the US Command and the Allies, instead of sending their leader, Mao, a stern warning. To be followed by heavy packages sent to Beijing, compliments of the Air Force. But…no, nothing the like.
So now we have a 3rd generation lunatic North Korean leader, with Nuclear capabilities, and just as crazy as the aspiring Ayatollahs.
And on top of this, we have China and Xi Jinping, just as nuts as Mao, working on undermining the whole world.
The USSR, thank G-d, dissolved on its own. Unfortunately, we still have to deal with one of its KGB colonels.
So, yes we are supposed to be the superpower, but it seems we are utterly & totally worthless in dealing with third world nations. In comparison, we did a lot better with the “Reich”, which was not a 3rd world country.
What’s up with this?
Militarily, you can invade Iran from Russia (as Stalin did during WW2) - but all that we could do now is drop ordnance on them from the air - our infantry has nowhere to jump off from (Iraq?) - and going in from the west runs almost immediately into mountains. Not good terrain for tanks, as we discovered in Italy during WW2. This somewhat limits Trump's options.
Our country is fighting against 3 powers who have support from many other countries. China’s, Iran’s, and Russia’s “leaders” are the cause of much of the world’s problems, deadly and dangerous problems. Netanyahu has refused to attack the militant terrorists who are the armies supported by Iran WITHOUT giving warnings to the populace of Gaza. He drops pamphlets to warn when Israel will attack. Trump is faced with the same problem but with 3 larger populations in 3 different countries. Many of us recognize this problem: In trying to defeat our enemies, how can we give warnings to the populace of 3 different and dangerous regimes? I trust in Trump and his desire to have peace in our world. He has proven to be a superior negotiator among world powers. He has accomplished great strides in this battle for peace. And he has done it with “deadly enemies on his back.” We must keep our support for Trump in place.
My condolences on the passing of Michael Ledeen.
In my view, Iran is a great culture of great people. It would be really great if the harsh rhetoric and threats were left behind and we all look forward to what we can do together.
As for the massive armaments in the region; glad these were destroyed, but deeply saddened that people were placed between the stores and the incoming.
Regarding the reshaping, I have my predictions and maps. In any regard, Syria, a very culturally diverse and geographically segmented, will likely serve as a set of buffer zones. Let us hope this can be peaceful and productive.